Higher economic growth in poor countries, lower migration flows to the OECD – Revisiting the migration hump with panel data

Higher economic growth in poor countries, lower migration flows to the OECD – Revisiting the migration hump with panel data

World Development
8 June 2024

English

20 pp.

330.304 Be14

This study explores emigration rates across countries at different economic stages, revealing an inverse U-shaped pattern. While economic progress in developing nations is often associated with increased migration, our analysis challenges this assumption. Using 35 years of migration data to OECD countries, we confirm the U-shaped relationship in cross-sectional analysis but find through rigorous panel estimations that emigration rates actually decrease as incomes rise. This suggests that higher individual incomes discourage emigration, highlighting the potential for economic policies to reduce emigration. Nonetheless, factors like education, demographics, and economic structure may still influence migration trends over the long term.