Off target Continued collective inaction puts global temperature goal at risk

Off target Continued collective inaction puts global temperature goal at risk

1767678200

New Climate Institute
04.11.25

eng

76 pp.

551 Un14

A decade after its adoption, the Paris Agreement has significantly reduced projected global warming trajectories by accelerating the global uptake of renewable energy technologies, strengthening climate governance, and catalysing widespread net-zero commitments. Current policy projections have declined from nearly 4°C in 2015 to just under 3°C today, while estimated warming based on nationally determined contributions (NDCs) has fallen to 2.3–2.5°C. Despite methodological changes over time, these trends reflect a substantial lowering of expected warming and a rapid expansion of mid-century net-zero pledges, now covering roughly 70 per cent of global emissions. However, the 2024 Emissions Gap Report shows that new NDCs exert only limited influence on narrowing the emissions gap for 2030 and 2035. Limiting warming to 1.5°C remains technically feasible but now requires higher and more prolonged overshoot due to delayed mitigation efforts, increasing future costs, damages and reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal. In 2024, global GHG emissions reached a record 57.7 GtCO₂e—a 2.3 per cent rise driven largely by land-use change emissions, which surged by 21 per cent. Fossil CO₂ emissions rose by 1.1 per cent. The findings underscore that only decisive and accelerated emission reductions can realign global trajectories with the Paris temperature goals and mitigate escalating climate risks, particularly for the most vulnerable populations.

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